January brings with it the usual proliferation of lists predicting technology trends for 2010. I’ll add to the swarm by providing a short list of events which I believe will have a significant impact on the Web As We Know It in the coming year.
The first item is the release of Apple’s Tablet. The impact of this device will be to make it abundantly clear to the consumer that the Web is to be had without the need for a typical computing device – no laptop required here. The Apple tablet will be an elitist device outside the US (as is the iPhone), but may turn out to be the poster child for convergence. As the delivery mechanisms for all content becomes IP networks, the consumer will cease to think of print, television and web content as different from each other – all will be one, as demonstrated by the Apple Tablet.
Microsoft’s Project Natal will be released into the wild. Forget augmented reality. This will be the first step towards extended reality, the blurring between virtual and real. The success of Avatar, the movie and the increasing availability of devices with three-dimensional displays will contribute to the acceptance of extended reality as an everyday reality, because the display techniques they use appear to intrude into the “real” world. This will smooth the road towards wide adoption of extended reality as a user interface mode. (Finally – a replacement for the mouse.) 2010 will be the year we start adding reality to the “real world”.
And finally – this year will resolve the question of how the planet’s largest social and communications platforms can evolve to have viable business models. Both Twitter and Facebook have massive and growing user bases, but neither have a clear plan for exploiting this user base – the sheer number of users, and the wide global distribution of these users should offer unique opportunities. I believe that 2010 will be the year that a way is found to exploit the mega-nets – paving the way for planetary connectivity, and the giga-net.
In summary, my three (almost) sure things for the year:
- Convergence, convergence, convergence. The medium is changing, and so shall the message.
- Extended reality starts entering the mainstream.
- A way is found to exploit mega-sized social and communications networks commercially.
There are a number of other trends which I believe will have a significant impact on the web-as-we-know-it: semantic markup is becoming ever more ubiquitous without anyone really noticing; cloud computing is maturing; entirely new modes of internet usage is establishing itself in developing countries. Mobile internet usage continues to increase. Broadband penetration will continue to grow, enabling more and more users to join social and communications networks – we will see the rise of the giga-net within a very few years.
But I believe the three most significant changes in the WAWKI will be triggered by the three events I listed here. Your mileage might vary – tell us about it.
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